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Recruitment & Retention

Published March 2008

Boomer Retirement: The Shortage is Not the Problem - The Replacements Are

 

  Michael Brannick

For decades, the backbone of America's workforce has been formed from one generation: the baby boomers. Born in the years following World War II, boomers are supposedly on the brink of mass retirement, with economic doomsayers forecasting the demise of the working world as we know it. But as the oft-quoted Mark Twain said, "The rumors of my demise are greatly exaggerated."

More and more signs are showing this workforce exodus either will not happen or is completely skewed in scale. The business world needs to worry less about the boomers leaving and worry more about the arrival of the Millennials.

The Boomer "Problem"

One of the major reasons behind the bogeyman of boomer retirement is the sheer scale. Doomsayers are preaching that the number of jobs will only continue to increase, while the number of available workers (with the boomers retiring en masse) will not be able to meet the talent demand. With almost every company expecting to lose a portion of their employee base through the exodus, competition among employers is likely to heat up, making talented, and therefore desirable, workers more expensive due to the increased need for their skills.

Another reason is the loss of the knowledge, skills and abilities — collectively known as KSAs — possessed by boomers. After having been entrenched in the workforce for decades, boomers often occupy positions that require a high level of technical expertise, business acumen or, at the very least, industry experience. Watchers fear that even if there are enough bodies to fill every position left vacant by retiring boomers, the odds that these new workers will be able to function at the same level as their experienced and knowledgeable forefathers are very low, and succession planning therefore becomes a relevant phrase in the talent management lexicon.

This KSA vacuum plays into another business concern: lost experience. Even if a fresh or recent college graduate can demonstrate the technical or business skills necessary for a position, how can businesses replace the savvy, historical perspective of their former employees? The answer is that they cannot, striking fear in the hearts of CEOs and management boards across the country.

So is business Armageddon at hand? The short answer is no. The proposed shortage of workers is shaping out to be less and less of an issue, with a recent Bureau of Labor Statistics figure showing that by 2012, there will be 165.3 jobs available for 162.3 workers — a shortage, but not nearly as severe as some are predicting. Many boomers also will continue to work longer, past the "normal" retirement age, simply due to poor financial planning. With the dollar falling and the cost of living increasing, the retirement flood probably will shake out to be nothing more than a slow trickle.

As for the KSA drought brought on by retiring boomers, it does not exist. Especially in technical fields, recent upticks in certification numbers mean the business world's technology knowledge base actually is increasing. Professionals are earning certifications in all aspects of technology — from specific coding languages to hardware to networking — making it easier to replace a retiring boomer in a technical position, as candidates can demonstrate immediately whether or not they possess the necessary KSAs for the position.