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Industry News

 

Conference Board Reports Online Job Demand Down 131K

Monday May 4, 2009

 

New York — May 4
Online advertised vacancies dropped 131,000 to 3.1 million in April, according to The Conference Board Help-Wanted Online Data Series (HWOL). The April loss follows drops of 6,600 in February and 100,000 in March, but much larger drops of 500,000 in both December and January. In total, advertised vacancies are down 1.3 million, or 30 percent, in the past six months.

“Based on the April numbers, we are not out of the woods, but the decline in labor demand is moderating,” said Gad Levanon, senior economist at The Conference Board.

“April and May are both months where business typically steps up their demand for workers. This year, that bounce may be more evident next month. With the April drop, the gap between labor demand (HWOL) and supply (unemployment) will widen further when the federal unemployment numbers are released this Friday. In March, there were 10 million more unemployed workers than advertised vacancies.”

Regional and State Highlights
There are some brighter areas in the Northeast and South, including New Jersey, New York, Virginia and North Carolina, where the number of advertised vacancies was up in April. The overall national picture, however, continued to be negative in April, with online labor demand declining in all four regions as declines more than offset the limited increases. The most populous states in the Midwest and West continued to post decreases.

The 47,400 drop in the West reflected continued declines in all of its most populous states. California and Arizona have shown downward trends since summer 2007 and also posted declines in April — California (-18,900) and Arizona (-4,500). Labor demand in Colorado and Washington began to turn down in summer 2008 and was down 6,700 and 5,000, respectively, in April.

The 45,200 decline in the Midwest region was also attributed to declines in all of its most populous states. Minnesota experienced the steepest drop (-9,400) and was followed by Illinois (-8,100), Ohio (-2,800), Wisconsin (-1,800), Michigan (-1,300) and Missouri (-900).

The 19,100 drop in the South reflected declines in all of its most populous states but Virginia (+4,500) and North Carolina (+100). Florida, which showed a modest gain last month, was down 6,300 in April. Georgia was down 5,600, followed by Texas (-1,400) and Maryland (-800).

Among the larger states in the Northeast region, New Jersey and New York showed modest gains of 3,800 and 3,400 respectively. Massachusetts declined by 5,600, and Pennsylvania declined by 5,200.

Among the states with smaller populations, states with modest declines in April were Mississippi (-100), Hawaii (-200), Vermont (-300), Kansas (-300), Wyoming (-500), Oklahoma (-500), New Hampshire (-600) and Alabama (-700).

The downward trend in employer demand coupled with the monthly increases in unemployment is creating a widening gap in the supply-demand balance in most States and making it increasingly difficult for the unemployed to find jobs. The supply-demand rate for the U.S. has been increasing and in March — the latest month for which unemployment numbers are available — was at 4.05, up from 3.72 in January, and has now surpassed 4 unemployed for every online advertised vacancy.

The highest supply-demand rate is in Michigan (8.47), or more than eight unemployed people for every advertised vacancy. Other states where there are more than five unemployed for every advertised vacancy include Mississippi (7.04), Indiana (7.03), Kentucky (6.90), North Carolina (6.59), South Carolina (6.09), Tennessee (5.79), Oregon (5.70), Ohio (5.69), California (5.58), Florida (5.41) and Georgia (5.24).

It should be noted that the supply-demand rates only provide a measure of relative tightness of the individual state labor markets and does not suggest that the occupations of the unemployed directly align with the occupations of the advertised vacancies.

Occupational Highlights
The widespread nature of the downturn in the economy remains evident in the large number of occupations where online advertised vacancies in April were 30 percent or more below levels in April 2008. The list of occupations experiencing severe declines in labor demand included both high-paying occupations such as management and legal, where wages average more than $42/hour to lower-paying occupations such as office and administrative support at $15/hour.

In April, there were 388,900 online advertised vacancies for management positions, a decline of 207,000, or 35 percent, from last April’s level. Demand for computer and mathematical positions dropped 194,600 to 394,100 and were 33 percent below the April 2008 level.

Office and administrative support ads were down 177,700 to 332,700 during the same period. Other categories showing severe declines included health care practitioners and technical (-136,600), business and finance (-100,300), and architecture and engineering (-87,800).

Metro Area Highlights
In April, 49 of the 52 metropolitan areas for which data are reported separately posted over-the-year declines in the number of online advertised vacancies. Oklahoma City, with 18,300 ads, was well above last year’s level (9.3 percent), and Honolulu, with 11,600, gained 1,100 advertised vacancies compared to last year.

Virginia Beach was on a par with last year’s level. Among the three metro areas with the largest number of advertised vacancies, online advertised vacancies in both the New York and the Los Angeles metro areas were fully one third below April 2008 levels. Washington, D.C., was down 8,300, or about 6 percent, from last year’s level.

For more info: http://www.conference-board.org